Russia was on my travel list for April 2022 actually as I was all psyched to go watch a rock climbing comp in Moscow. I had even started to look at tickets and lodging online when all hell broke loose.
Anyway, here are some thots/questions in no particular order:
1. This war is a useful lesson for China to study the effects of western sanctions on a single, large economy as it considers taking back Taiwan and continues to strong-arm other countries. Conversely, the resulting fallout from the sanctions across the globe is also a useful lesson for the west.. as the understanding gleaned from all this can be taken into consideration if sanctions of such a large scale need to be considered against China someday.
2. If Roscosmos, Russia's state space corporation, is not going to be putting up satellites for a while, would the launch business then shift to other countries such as India? Where will the work and research on the international space station go from here?
3. Now that many western brands have withdrawn or suspended operations in Russia, are Russians starting to feel that something maybe off about the state media reported "demilitarization" yet? Unless, of course, they are also being fed a plausible reason for why they can no longer buy western-made goods? Example: The internet is down because of solar flares. But.. what about older Russians who are traditionally known to pine for the "good, old days" of the Soviet Union? Do they miss western goods or are they happy to go back to waiting in line for bread?
4. If Russians eventually get to read about this event as "war" and "invasion" in western media articles as opposed to the "demilitarization" touted now by their state media, does that mean they, particularly the younger generation, will be more vocal about a "demilitarization" if/when it happens the next time? And would they become more active and preemptive in their political process to ensure that a dictator like Putin never happens again? At the same time, one cannot help but think that, if it were not for Vladimir Putin, Russia may have gone to the dogs and not be feared as much by the EU once the Soviet Union fell.
5. China had ideals.. that it was its own Universe filled with culture, learning and the fine art of pouring tea (think ancient Damascus). And it did not concern itself with what was happening in the rest of the globe. Then the first World War happened. And China slowly started transforming from within and becoming the beast it is today. Is Russia going back to what China wanted to be before the first World War? Is Putin's war as much about the glory days of old as it is about stopping NATO expansion?
6. This war is certainly an attack on democracy and it will endear western countries to Ukraine spiritually. That spiritual connection.. that strong emotional connection to Ukraine is one of the reasons why Putin wants Ukraine back in the Russian sphere. But it appears he either miscalculated in this regard or thinks Russian "spirituality" will eventually prove stronger.
7. The treatment of non-Caucasian refugees at the borders of certain countries like Poland shows that the United States, for all its faults, is nowhere near as racist as some of its own citizens claim it to be. But then, the degree of racism on display anywhere in the world is all relative and depends on a lot of factors, including ignorance, prejudices and indifference, vetted over time.
8. Would there be an acceleration in the development and consumption of certain products, such as electric and hybrid vehicles, as oil prices do the mambo yet again? Certainly, the automobile industry and consumers are much better placed today in terms of the knowledge and experience available when it comes to promoting and consuming cleaner technology. So could Putin's war be an enlightening experience of sorts in that regard and move the world to be a bit less reliant on fossil fuels?
9. I have been a bit uncomfortable about Russian oil and gas going to Germany through that pipeline. But now that seems to be over. If so, what will the Germans do for their energy needs? Will they develop more electric and hybrid products?
10. Will I ever be able to travel to Russia one day and enjoy their cuisine, snowy streets and may be run into some of their fantastic youtubers I have watched online?
11. The seizing of the assets and yachts of the Russian oligarchs by the EU gives the impression that Putin and his cronies are really one big mob that has been allowed to run amok for too long.
12. I breakfasted out this morning. While I had been vaguely aware of raising prices in the last few weeks every time I went grocery shopping or refueled my car, I developed a strong sense for how the rest of the world might be impacted -- by Putin's war and the resulting sanctions -- when I got slammed with the bill. The brand-new menu -- with the raised prices -- did give me a clue. Still.. seeing that bill as opposed to what it used to be only a few weeks earlier was quite a revelation. So now the plan is to breakfast out once instead of twice a week.. and maybe stop eating out altogether for a few weeks.
13. The Ukrainians seem to be showing much more nerve than the Afghan military ever did once western forces pulled out and the Taliban moved into the bigger cities of Afghanistan. How battle-hardened will the Ukrainian people emerge out of all this? And will that newfound knowledge and experience prove to be a better deterrent against Russia down the road? No doubt NATO and the rest of the countries bordering Russia are closely observing the tactics being used by both sides of Putin's war.
14. Would major incidences of industrial hacking for ransom or otherwise, spurred on by Russian influence, increase in the coming years?
15. Could this be deliberate timing by Putin? Going into war at a time of rising inflation knowing that sanctions would be the way that the west would attempt to "punish" him? Because rising inflation would mean that the west will be affected negatively even further economically when those sanctions do get imposed.
